> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://um.fz.ax/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://um.fz.ax/business/the-inevitable.md). # the inevitable the only constant is change ### Becoming * technology is always changing, hard to predict what will come from it * the most important thing that came out from the last century is scientific method which became the process/blueprint to create all these new inventions * no one cared to buy domains when the internet was in the early stages * new frontiers will always be there. in 2016, whatever invented will be akin to domains back in the days looking back from 2050 ### Cognifying * "Google is an AI company, not a search company" - Brin at a party before its IPO * when electricity was discovered, the business model is taking a tool and electrify it * now it's *take x and add AI* * cognified - music, laundry, marketing, real estate, nursing, construction, ethics, toys, sports, knitting, etc. * AI breakthroughs now because we have: cheap parallel computation, big data, and better algorithms * robots will blend into ours lives and take away old jobs but new jobs will be created * jobs humans can do but robots can do even better * jobs humans can't do but robots can * jobs we didn't know we wanted done * jobs only humans can do - at first ### Flowing * internet is like world's largest copy machine and copies will flow freely through the network forever * humans like to create based on what we know * initial computers had a "desktop" with "folders" and "files" * then the web turned it into a "browser" with "pages" * now we have a "stream" with "channels", adding "tags", "likes", only present, no past or future * first industry disrupted by this was music * universal law of economics - the moment something becomes free and ubiquitous, its position in the economic equation suddenly inverts * electrical lighting was new and scarce, the poor burned candles * electricity became common and almost free, candles became a sign of luxury * what can't be copied? **Trust** * add generative qualities to the free product: * immediacy * personalization * interpretation * authenticity * accessibility * embodiment * patronage * discoverability * 4 stages of flowing: * fixed / rare * free / ubiquitous * flowing / sharing * opening / becoming ### Screening * from people of the word -> people of the book -> people of the screen * books will be linked like the web (sort of like wikipedia) * universal library like the library of alexandria * the screens will become smaller and smaller ### Accessing * from noun to verb, product to service, ownership to rental * 5 deep technological trends: * dematerialization - software eats the world, SaaS * real-time on demand - rethink the ways to service, uber for X * decentralization - bitcoin * platform synergy - apple appstore, software ecosystems * clouds - dynamically distributed, final step: decentralized access (the cloud) ### Sharing * digital social-ism - collaborative filtering and promote the best stuff * 4 steps of social arrangements * sharing - youtube, pinterest, foursquare, yelp * cooperation - creative commons, tags * collaboration - open source softwares and hardwares * collectivism - openhub.net all work for free, paid by being allowed to stay in the commune * google, facebook, twitter all benefited hugely from sharing * *bottom up is not enough*, top down is needed too * wikipedia, linux - only a small amount of elites get to make the big decisions * hive-mind is good enough and scales up nicely * crowd-funding for anything ### Filtering * filters exist today: gatekeepers, intermediates, curators, brands, government, our cultural environment, our friends, ourselves * danger of being rewarded with only what you like, filter bubble - "overfitting" * suggest stuff that I don't like but would like to like * large-scale personalization is coming for the masses (pills, clothing) * in the future, people can copy your filter/recommendation and you'd get monetary value * too much data, limited attention - the only scarce thing now * attention is rather cheap (around $3/hr) since you always need to spend it * google, facebook used data to match ads to users wonderfully with a bidding system * new model could be - p2p ad creation network, pinterest like ads curation where the curator gets paid in microtransaction per view * more things are being commoditized and decreasing in value but the experience economy is vibrant ### Remixing * golden age of new mediums - remix out of old genres * new genres -> remixed, unbundled, recombined into new genres * upsetting the great asymmetry in all media - easier to read a book than to write, listen than compose, view than produce * lucas changed the way movies are made from scenes shot to mock slowly edited bit by bit * every scene is touched by digital manipulation * more in common with the way books are written, paintings are painted * books are references and citations but movies are still lacking that * how to browse a film the way we browse a book? * video summary (from porn invention) * video findability is the holy grail - google is working on that by training AI to recognize photos which makes up a video * rewindability is another ongoing revolution - shift from orals to books, now happening to movies, music, games and more * material to intangible brings into question what ownership is * house can only owned by one person, an idea can only be copied * laws will be lagging behind but will follow suits to technology ### Interacting * vr was first started in 1980s but never took off * timothy leary compared vr to lsd * vr's two benefits: *presence and interaction* * eventually imax's cinema could be projected to your eyes with certain positioning of lighting * from second life -> minecraft because too much computing power in the former game * nano cameras to track your eye movement and displayed in vr environment * eye tracking for auto-annotation if one gets stuck or auto-forward in a video if bored * "trouble with computer is there's not enough africa in them" * embed microphones, cameras and sensors to use your whole body as a controller * eventually if something is not interactive, it's broken * interaction expansion: * more senses * more intimacy * more immersion * vr world is under total surveillance, everything needs to be tracked * identity will be an issue in the future * your body will be your password - typing, heartbeat, gait, blink, voice - interaction as a password ### Tracking * "quantified self" meetup where everything imaginable is tracked * personally medicine maker box is possible with tracking * evolve our senses with tracking * track and share your lifestreams * lifelogging with narrative clip to take photos every few moments * audio lifelogging is better than visual * every car manufactured after 2006 has a tiny obd chip mounted to track miles, speed, braking, etc. * tracking will follow the same way of accessing - any data can be tracked, will be tracked * ubiquitous tracking is inevitable * government is tracking but doing it secretly which needs to be transparent * vanity trumps privacy * anonymity is like toxic substances. shouldn't be eliminated since it sustains life but should as close to zero as possible * giga -> tera -> peta -> exa -> zetta -> yotta -> "unknown" * there is a large magnitude of orders between each * 54 billion sensors every year by 2020 ### Questioning * wikipedia and ebay shouldn't be possible but did * criminals will use creative ways to use the new tools * future will be streams of only the impossible moments * interwoven between work and play online - a waking dream of sort * more advanced tools answer questions but more questions pop out from the answer * we really don't know much about the universe at all * question <> answer paradigm is shifted - answers are a commodity now * a good question is worth a million good answers * quality of a good question: * not concerned with a correct answer * cannot be answered immediately * challenges existing answers * one you badly want answered once you hear it, but had no inkling you cared before it was asked * creates new territory of thinking * reframes its own answers * is the seed of innovation in science, technology, art, politics, and business * is a probe, a what-if scenario * skirts on the edge of what is known and not known, neither silly nor obvious * cannot be predicted * will be the sign of an educated mind * is one that generates many other good questions * may be the last job a machine will learn to do * is what humans are for ### Beginning * a cycle - a century-long process * global system will not be utopia - will be like real-life with classes * we are in the beginning right now with the shift from centralized to decentralized * singularity - a frontier beyond which nothing can be known * "hard" - super ai learns everything there is to know and take over * "soft" - a complex interdependence